What will it be like in ten years with the Endangerment Finding repealed?

~ The Eco Village Co-op Has An Ideal Location For Climate Change Adaptability ~

The timing of this question is striking—just yesterday (February 12, 2026), the Trump administration officially repealed the EPA's 2009 endangerment finding, eliminating the legal foundation for federal greenhouse gas regulation under the Clean Air Act. Given the scientific consensus that we are at or beyond critical climate tipping points, the next decade in Michigan will be shaped by two powerful, contradictory forces: an accelerating climate crisis and a federal government actively dismantling the tools to address it.

The Endangerment Finding Repeal: What It Actually Does ~

The repeal is not symbolic—it's structural. The endangerment finding was the legal prerequisite that required the EPA to regulate greenhouse gases from vehicles, power plants, and oil and gas operations. By revoking it, the administration has:

Eliminated all federal greenhouse gas emission standards for light, medium, and heavy-duty vehicles from model years 2027 onward.

Removed the legal obligation for the EPA to regulate CO₂, methane, and four other greenhouse gases as pollutants under the Clean Air Act.

Set up a domino effect that undermines the legal basis for GHG regulations across all sectors—not just transportation.

Opened the door to block future administrations from reinstating climate regulations, since the legal finding itself has been erased.

The Environmental Defense Fund projects that this action alone will increase U.S. greenhouse gas emissions by approximately 10% over the next 30 years. EPA Administrator Zeldin called it the "single largest deregulatory action in U.S. history". The transportation sector is the nation's largest source of direct GHG emissions, with cars and trucks accounting for over 75% of those emissions.

The Global Tipping Point Reality ~

The science published just days ago is blunt. A February 2026 paper in One Earth warns that multiple Earth systems are near critical tipping points that could trigger a "hothouse Earth" trajectory—approximately 9°F (5°C) above preindustrial temperatures—that would be effectively irreversible.

The cascading risks include:

Greenland Ice Sheet collapse (potentially unstoppable at ~1.5°C, which we've already breached), AMOC (Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation) weakening, which could trigger Amazon rainforest dieback.

Permafrost thaw is releasing massive methane stores that amplify warming and destabilize the West Antarctic Ice Sheet.

As Yale Environment 360 documented, the 1.5°C Paris target was breached for the first time over a sustained three-year period ending in 2025. Former IPCC chair Robert Watson declared the Paris Agreement "dead." The world is now in overshoot territory, and the question is no longer whether tipping points will be crossed, but how many and how fast.

Michigan's Climate in 2036: The 10-Year Outlook ~

The Great Lakes Integrated Sciences and Assessments (GLISA) program at the University of Michigan provides the most authoritative regional projections. Here is what northern Michigan and the Kalkaska County area can expect over the next decade, based on mid-century trajectory data:

Temperature ~

Average temperatures will rise 3°F to 6°F by mid-century, with the northern parts of the Great Lakes region experiencing the greatest increases. By 2036, expect roughly 1.5–3°F of additional warming beyond current conditions.

Michigan's climate will increasingly resemble that of present-day Missouri under lower-emissions scenarios and that of Oklahoma under higher-emissions scenarios. The repeal of the endangerment finding pushes us firmly toward the higher-emissions pathway.

Extreme heat days will multiply. By 2050, the average Michigan resident will experience approximately 37 extremely hot days per year, compared to far fewer historically. By 2036, expect a significant increase—likely 15–25 additional days above 90°F in southern Michigan, with noticeable increases even in the north.

Winters will warm dramatically, with fewer extremely cold days and more precipitation falling as rain rather than snow.

Precipitation and Water ~

Average temperatures will rise 3°F to 6°F by mid-century, with the northern parts of the Great Lakes region experiencing the greatest increases. By 2036, expect roughly 1.5–3°F of additional warming beyond current conditions.

Michigan's climate will increasingly resemble that of present-day Missouri under lower-emissions scenarios and that of Oklahoma under higher-emissions scenarios. The repeal of the endangerment finding pushes us firmly toward the higher-emissions pathway.

Extreme heat days will multiply. By 2050, the average Michigan resident will experience approximately 37 extremely hot days per year, compared to far fewer historically. By 2036, expect a significant increase—likely 15–25 additional days above 90°F in southern Michigan, with noticeable increases even in the north.

Winters will warm dramatically, with fewer extremely cold days and more precipitation falling as rain rather than snow.

Precipitation and Water ~

Annual precipitation will increase, but the pattern shifts dramatically: wetter winters and springs, drier summers.

Extreme rainfall events have already increased by 34% and will continue to intensify, overwhelming stormwater infrastructure and increasing flood risk.

Summer drought risk will increase, with longer consecutive dry stretches interspersed with intense downpours—the worst of both worlds for agriculture and land management.

Great Lakes water levels will become more volatile, with higher highs and lower lows occurring more rapidly. Lake Michigan-Huron levels are projected to rise an average of 0.44 meters (~1.5 feet) by 2040–2049 under higher-emissions scenarios.

Extreme Weather ~

According to GLISA's hazard assessment for mid-century:

The increase in wildfire risk is particularly relevant to Kalkaska County's forested landscape—this was already evident in the summer of 2025, when extreme heat caused road infrastructure damage in Rapid City, in our area.

What This Means for the Eco Village Co-op ~

The Bad News

The repeal of the endangerment finding means the federal government is no longer a partner in emissions reduction. The U.S.—historically the world's largest cumulative emitter—is essentially withdrawing from the global climate effort at the worst possible moment. For any project planning 30+ year infrastructure, this means planning for higher-emissions scenarios is now prudent, not pessimistic. The climate our co-op will experience in 2036 and beyond will be measurably more volatile than the current climate.

Specific risks for EVC in Kalkaska County:

Increased spring flooding could affect construction timelines and site drainage.

Summer drought stress on gardens, orchards, and food production systems.

More erratic freeze-thaw cycles are damaging fruit trees and spring plantings.

Rising pest and disease pressure as warmer conditions allow southern species to move north.

Infrastructure stress from extreme heat and precipitation swings ~

The Good News—and It's Significant

Michigan is becoming a climate haven, and the EVC is positioned on the right side of the migration equation. Several factors work strongly in our favor:

Climate migration is real and accelerating. Rural Great Lakes communities are already seeing population growth from domestic migration, with rural Michigan counties gaining population from 2020 to 2023 after a decade of decline. Reports suggest rural Great Lakes counties could gain 1.5 million people in the next six years if current trends hold. People are fleeing Florida's hurricanes, the Southwest's drought, and the West's wildfires.

Michigan's state-level climate policy remains strong despite the federal rollback. The state's 2023 clean energy package mandates 100% clean energy by 2040—and both Consumers Energy and DTE Energy have confirmed they'll comply regardless of federal changes. Michigan committed $129 million to renewable energy community programs in 2025 and has received more federal clean energy dollars than any other state.

Abundant freshwater is the ultimate asset. The Great Lakes hold 21% of the world's surface freshwater. While the West faces existential water crises, Michigan's challenge is managing excess water, not scarcity. Kalkaska County's flood risk remains relatively modest—only about 15% of properties face flood risk through 2056. The EVC is located at the highest point in Kalkaska County; the property has excellent drainage.

Housing cooperatives are uniquely positioned for climate resilience. Co-ops can implement collective sustainability measures—such as renewable energy, water conservation, disaster planning, and adaptive agriculture—at a scale that individual homeowners cannot achieve. The National Cooperative Housing Association specifically identifies decarbonization, electrification, building envelope improvements, stormwater management, and backup power as priority adaptation measures.

The EVC's design philosophy already aligns with the principles of resilience. Self-reliance, renewable energy, cohousing for shared resources, and community-based food production are exactly the strategies climate adaptation experts recommend.

Strategic Recommendations for the Next Decade ~

Given this landscape, the EVC should consider:

Design for the higher-emissions scenario. With federal regulation gutted, plan for Michigan summers that feel like today's Missouri by mid-century—more cooling capacity, shade structures, drought-tolerant food production.

Invest heavily in water management—both retention for summer drought and drainage for spring deluges.

Explicitly market the EVC as climate-resilient housing. This is increasingly a selling point, especially for the senior/boomer demographic, watching their peers struggle with hurricanes in Florida and heat in Arizona.

Leverage Michigan's state-level clean energy framework for solar, storage, and efficiency incentives while they last.

Build adaptive food systems—longer growing seasons mean new crop possibilities, but erratic springs and summer drought mean traditional approaches need updating.

Plan for population influx—the demand for affordable, sustainable housing in northern Michigan is likely to increase over the next decade as climate migration accelerates.

The Bottom Line ~

By 2036, Michigan will be warmer, wetter in winter, drier in summer, and subject to more extreme weather events than today. The federal government's abandonment of climate regulation increases the likelihood of the higher-emissions pathway, thereby accelerating these trends. But Michigan remains one of the most livable places in a warming America—abundant water, state-level clean energy commitments, and a climate that, while changing, avoids the catastrophic heat, drought, and sea-level rise threatening much of the country.

The Eco Village Co-op isn't just building housing—it's building exactly the kind of resilient, self-reliant community infrastructure that the next decade demands. The irony of the Endangered Species Act repeal is that it makes projects like the EVC more necessary, not less. As federal protections disappear, community-level adaptation becomes the frontline of climate response. That's where we are.